The NTD Modelling Consoritum is attending 2016 COR-NTD meeting. The consortium have written a short booklet for non-specialist readers sumarising insights from mathematical modeling about challenges in reaching the 2020 elimination goals for NTDs. Neglected tropical diseases are community problems - one person’s infection poses a risk to everybody. This makes elimination challenging, but also provides an extra benefits - everybody gains from every case that is prevented or cured.
The dynamics of infection are non-linear and difficult to predict - if you remove 50% of soil-transmitted helminth infections, the impact is greater than 50%, but if you then do nothing, the gain is lost. For this reason, mathematical modelling is now regarded as essential for maximising the impact and cost-effectiveness of interventions. Whilst mathematical modelling has come relatively late to the global effort to eliminate NTDs, it will be required to target and hone the final push towards the 2020 goals, and to help prevent resurgence of diseases once they are controlled.
In the booklet we propose action points where we, as a community working towards NTD control and elimination, need to develop new tools, encourage better use of existing tools or gather additional evidence to ensure more effective programme design, interpretation of surveillance data and forward projections of programme impact to help achieve the 2020 goals. These are deliberately chosen to challenge and stimulate fruitful debate.
In the diseases section of this website we provide NTD modeling papers grouped by disease which address many of the questions in the booklet. These pages are continually updated with new publications. Have a browse and contact the authors for additional details.